[SMM Analysis] Supply Expectations Narrow Amid Demand Support, Chrome Ore Prices Continue to Rise

January 30, 2026:

This week, the latest offer price for 40-42% South African chrome concentrate fines from major overseas mines was $297/mt, up $10/mt MoM from January 22, equivalent to a domestic spot price of about 57-58 yuan/mtu, basically at the same price level. During the month, overseas chrome ore offers rose by nearly $40/mt, supporting domestic spot prices, which increased by 5 yuan/mtu. Market confidence remained bullish, and the overall trend held up well.

Demand side, the downstream stainless steel market performed well recently, with prices breaking through recent highs and fluctuating in the range of 14,500-14,900 yuan/mt. Positive sentiment transmitted upstream, increasing demand for ferrochrome. Operating rates remained at relatively high levels, and there was demand for winter stockpiling purchases of chrome ore. According to SMM statistics, China's high-carbon ferrochrome production in January 2026 decreased slightly by 0.83% MoM, but overall remained at historically high levels, supporting chrome ore prices.

Supply side, according to SMM data, global chrome ore shipments in January 2026 were estimated at 2.45 million mt, down 14.74% MoM from the previous month. Recently, South Africa entered the rainy season, which imposed certain restrictions on chrome ore mining and shipments, leading to some tightening in supply. Meanwhile, South Africa's energy regulator approved a 35% electricity price reduction for Glencore and Samancor, effectively lowering ferrochrome production costs and stimulating the recovery of South Africa's ferrochrome industry. Subsequent chrome ore exports from South Africa are expected to decrease, resulting in tighter chrome ore supply and supporting strong and stable chrome ore prices.